Some of the longer term potential economic fall out from the shutdown If the New Green Deal's alternative energy push wa...

Some of the longer term potential economic fall out from the shutdown If the New Green Deal's alternative energy push was not already in trouble the oil price plummet has taken the wind out of its sails. Similar thing happened in the '80's when the price of oil took a nose dive. If you are an investor I would look for an opportunity to take profits or minimize my loss. Between the stored oil glut and how long it will take to get the world's economic engines back to consumi...ng large amounts of it I suspect the price doesn't see $50 for WTI for a long while. Cruise lines are an area I always avoided buying stock in largely because something like the Legionnaire's disease outbreak seemed likely to repeat itself at some point. I suspect that there will be a lot more like me as far as stock investment and a drop off in those actually taking a cruise. NYC and the concept of high density population lifestyles i.e. sky scrapers and mega apartments/condominium may take a hit. I know I would not want to own real estate in NYC right now. Their mass transit system seems the perfect breeding ground for a virus outbreak. At least in SF the BART is above ground and gets sunlight doused where as the subway in NYC is a dark, moist tunnel for most of its run. All the high percent of death per million state residents is in crowded metro areas. There is much to love about where I live with five acres, a large orchard, garden and green space between myself and neighbors. Maybe it is time for corporate America to look to less populated areas where their employees can experience living like something other than in a rat colony.

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Here is some proof for those still on the fence that Fauci has advised Trump poorly and it is time to start to re-open p...

Here is some proof for those still on the fence that Fauci has advised Trump poorly and it is time to start to re-open parts of the country subject to local discretion. The attached link has data sorted in some very useful ways that expose that there are exogenous variables that make some parts poor guides to the rest of the country. See NYC, New Orleans metro, Detroit etc. The key column is Deaths per 1 M population. NY 513 NJ 265... MI 149 LA 180 CT 155 MA 111 No other states are close to 100 per 1 M populations with bottom NC, NE 9 UT, HI, MT 6 WV 5 SD 7 TX 10 CA 17 See any patterns? Dense populations, mass transit, Mardi Gra. We were panicked by people whose math skills were so poor in building models that key assumptions were left completely out as they theorized that NYC was the epicenter of the spread. Facts seem to point to other issues especially since NYC continues to run mass transit since car ownership is expensive even if you can find a place to park. Maybe a good time to move to a bit more open air and less mass transit ! https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/…

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Maybe things should not go back to 'normal' after this virus settles down. I encourage people to read this incredibly ...

Maybe things should not go back to 'normal' after this virus settles down. I encourage people to read this incredibly detailed and well cited study published in Hong Kong in 2007. As an author I hate to ruin an ending but here are the last two lines: "The presence of a large reservoir of SARS-CoV-like viruses in horseshoe bats, together with the culture of eating exotic mammals in southern China, is a time bomb. The possibility of the reemergence of SARS and other novel viruses from animals or laboratories and therefore the need for preparedness should not be ignored." WHO and China are indirectly complicit in every death from this virus. Note the "culture of eating exotic mammals in Southern China, is a time bomb". Is the world just going to let them continue to operate the wet markets? Maybe it is time for a worldwide 'cold war' with China and ostracize them and their citizens until they stop making "time bombs"? The implications of that have far reaching economic impacts that could drive us to a true Great Depression as the world realigns supply, demand and distribution channels for an isolated China. A tough call but possibly one that should be discussed. If Climate Change was an existential threat this is the REAL deal we have already seen more than once. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2176051/…

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More proof that only science deniers buy into the climate change guidance of the left. Even the ultra liberal and ofte...

More proof that only science deniers buy into the climate change guidance of the left. Even the ultra liberal and often biased in their view website Snopes had to admit that: "Based on the data contained in the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) February 2020 report, it would be accurate to say that in 2019 the U.S. had the largest year-on-year reduction in carbon dioxide emissions of any country, in absolute terms." Think about that! Germany and the EU with their love of ...their version of the New Green Deal could not out perform the US in reducing carbon emissions. If you read the whole report you would find that natural gas was the driver of the reductions. So apparently the Paris Climate Change Accord is exactly the hoax that Trump and any thinking person knew it was. I encourage people to read the report because it contains some interesting information that once again points the finger at those who are destroying the environment. Hint: China is a big player. https://www.iea.org/articles/global-co2-emissions-in-2019…

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Corona virus and state budget thoughts The piece I wrote a few weeks ago based on one of my international trader sources...

Corona virus and state budget thoughts The piece I wrote a few weeks ago based on one of my international trader sources is being bore out as the Italian outbreak is being better understood. The Chinese connection has now been better publicized and in fact the first two patients were Chinese. Sweden is going to be the country for all others to benchmark against in how you deal with a pandemic. They have chosen to rely on individual responsibility and have not shut down bu...siness or public gathering. So far they have not been impacted any more or any less than other countries. At least there is now a comparison to keep the "we were right no matter the outcome" game from being played by our politicians and bureaucrats. Sometimes there is an opportunity in state budgeting for a win-win-win. The budget crisis may give us one. State work forces in every state I have studied are heavily weighted towards elderly workers. The structure of benefits and advancement almost guarantee that outcome but that is for another discussion. However, given that reality states should consider a voluntary buy out or what is called a VoBo of any state worker over 65 by giving them additional "years of service". State retirement systems using defined benefit types of retirement have an equation that rewards workers for more years of service hence offering more years to those workers is a powerful incentive. For example five years in a 2% multiplier system creates a ten percent increase in retirement benefits. If they are over 65 they automatically qualify for Medicare thus there is no need to offer any COBRA or extension of health benefits. By reducing the age of the workforce the state health insurance costs are reduced giving the taxpayer and the budget a break without harming the retiree. There is an additional savings in the fact the older workers are some of the highest paid. I could go into a long discussion of how you replace them without increasing the number of FTEs but that is for another time. That 'hit' on the retirement system of those additional years is a "future value of a dollar" play i.e. a dollar in the future is less costly than a dollar today and if they manage the savings to the state it is not a true cost at all in the long run. I would guess five years is about the right amount to maximize the number taking the VoBo and the structure I suggest minimizes the costs to everyone concerned from state worker to state budget to taxpayer hence the win-win-win.

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The "low" estimates of those financial services I subscribe to their publications are 10 million Americans unemployed by...

The "low" estimates of those financial services I subscribe to their publications are 10 million Americans unemployed by the end of this forced shutdown. We all should remember this does NOT include the self employed unless they were paying themselves a wage in their business. Has the prevention become a overreaction that will drive us into a great depression is a question that our officials need to consider. The epicenter of deaths is in a city with a high density of pop...ulation, a mass transit system that was widely used and a large number of international visitors. How those variables apply to the rest of the country is pretty questionable. Similarly the New Orleans Mardi Gra celebration's timing that created their position as a high death loss area is unlike the rest of the country. Should we risk a great depression based on Fauci's view of the epidemic? In investment we often discuss past performance when we consider a particular company. In CDC and Fauci's case the past has not been particularly impressive. In 2009 the flu epidemic they predicted would kill 90,000 actually resulted in 12,500 deaths. The Ebola scare numbers were even more skewed. No crystal ball or time machine exists that will let us look to the future to be able to say anything with certainty but my small sampling size of former clients is beyond troubling. The impact on their fiscal and mental health is real. Next year's state budgets will be devastated financially leaving the ability of each in a quandary. Public Education is always first to the 'trough' and my experience has been there is not any situation that they believe requires that they tighten their belt. Medicaid's ranks will swell as it always does during high unemployment. In effect the two big consumers of tax dollars will consume a greater share of a dwindling resource. Going to be a tough time under the domes of state capitols. Cries for tax increases from the users of taxpayer funding will fill the halls of legislatures. It will be a tough year for conservatives to stand their ground and the result could be even tougher on taxpayers struggling to recover from the fiscal impact of this 'cure'.

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I am still holding some cash for bottom fishing. These "dead cat" bounces of the Dow and NASDAQ are not really an indic...

I am still holding some cash for bottom fishing. These "dead cat" bounces of the Dow and NASDAQ are not really an indication things are going to improve soon. I guess the positive is that the up and down plays are available to the small investor now with online investing and zero commission charges. I think when the next unemployment report comes out people will realize throwing money at the problem is only a temporary fix. Many businesses will not be reopening, however,... what will happen is those assets of things like restaurant 'hardware' will be purchased and new businesses will start up. That will not be the V shaped recover that some seem to think is possible. We are lucky we are still mostly a free market economy as I suspect the really slow climb out of this will be the socialist/communist countries with centrally planned economies. My prediction is that they will at first appear to be doing better but 'flat line' as the concept of supply not being tailored to demand once again proves its validity. I suspect the cure is much worse than the problem in the long run. Maybe the worst part of this is a population that was willing to accept their Constitutional rights being assaulted without so much as a whimper. Next outbreak of a swine or bird flu the government may get away with the same suppression of rights. Far more people died to attain and maintain those rights than this virus will kill.

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