Monday, April 27, 2020

As new data comes in we find out some things most already suspected on the CoVid crisis. 1) NYC and the surrounding area...

As new data comes in we find out some things most already suspected on the CoVid crisis. 1) NYC and the surrounding areas outbreak was made worse by a reduction in the schedule of their mass transit system which created a crowded environment. No doubt the dark and dank environment of the NYC subway system provided the perfect environment for the virus to stay active on inert surfaces. 2) Nursing home residents have been the hardest hit. In Iowa 50 percent of the deaths and... in the most populous county in Kansas it is a whopping 70 percent. 3) Several studies now point to a fatality rate more consistent with the flu but as a much more contagious virus those fatalities have been incurred over a shorter time span. 4) The economic crisis created by our leader's reactions will be much longer lasting than the virus. A host of oil companies have or will be filing bankruptcy, estimates as high as 50 percent of all non-chain owned restaurants will never re-open, some old classics like Nieman Marcus and J. C. Penny are in bankruptcy, roughly $300 billion of corporate debt may go into default putting pension systems and retirement accounts in peril and ---in my opinion a factor that is impossible to calculate but really important---a huge number of start-ups will be lost due to the leverage and lack of cash flow those entities usually have. As in life every bad thing that happens to you can be a learning experience and let us hope that we learned that next time we identify at risk groups earlier and let everyone else practice individual responsibility.


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